Category: SITUATION REPORT

March 2026 marks five years and four months since the onset of the genocidal war on Tigray waged by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces. More than three years after the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) was signed, Ethiopia’s failure to fully implement it has triggered renewed clashes between the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) in occupied Tigrayan territories. These clashes in late January 2026 were followed by ENDF drone strikes that killed at least one person in central Tigray, and the Federal government’s cancellation of all flights to the region – a suspension which was lifted and reinstated several times since. Concurrently, the Ethiopian government has been deploying thousands of its soldiers to Tigray’s borders, encircling the region, while tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are also reaching a boiling point.

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Defense has also declared a state of maximum alert, and discharged officers have been recalled to active duty. Following these developments, twenty international human rights organizations warned that Ethiopia is “on the brink” of renewed large-scale conflict. The International Crisis Group characterized the situation as a “powder keg,” warning that a deadly conflict could erupt at any time with the potential to plunge the whole Horn of Africa region into a proxy war. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel would back Ethiopia, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt would support Eritrea, and Tigray would be caught in the middle and forced to choose a side. The Horn of Africa is set to be transformed into a theater for competing global interests with catastrophic consequences for the people of Tigray.

In early February 2026, Ethiopia’s House of Federation ordered the removal of five electoral districts — Humera, Adi Remets, Tselemti, Korem Ofla, and Raya Alamata — from Tigray’s regional oversight ahead of the upcoming 7th General Election. These districts encompass areas from which hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans were ethnically cleansed during the war, and analysts have described the move as a deliberate act of war preparation that formalizes the territorial dispossession driving the post-Pretoria Agreement crisis. Although the Federal High Court temporarily suspended the National Election Board of Ethiopia’s (NEBE’s) implementation of the ruling, the decision reflects a broader federal pattern of dispossessing Tigrayan territory and impeding Tigrayan political representation. The House of Federation’s decision follows the NEBE’s earlier ban on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray’s main political party and signatory to the Pretoria Agreement, from participating in future elections. Rather than restoring these territories and facilitating the return of displaced populations as mandated by the Pretoria Agreement, the Ethiopian federal government has moved to reward ethnic cleansing with electoral legitimacy while eliminating meaningful Tigrayan political representation.

In parallel to the continued Tigrayan disenfranchisement, an increase in tensions and continued threat of renewed war, the humanitarian crisis in Tigray continues to deepen. Food aid to Tigray declined by over 50% between January and November 2025. Aid beneficiaries dropped from 1.66 million to just 726,000, a catastrophic reduction driven by the suspension of USAID operations and the broader retreat of international humanitarian engagement. About 900,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) remain in Tigray, with the vast majority having been displaced for more than three years. Starvation remains the leading cause of death across all age groups. Between November 2022 and August 2023, over 300 IDPs died at Hitsats IDP Camp. The healthcare system is near collapse, with over 90% of facilities damaged and two-thirds non-functional. On March 5th, 2026, Tigray’s Health Bureau warned of imminent total health system collapse. Meanwhile, fuel restrictions imposed by the federal government continue to strangle humanitarian operations and essential services.

Compounding these failures, Tigray’s internal political landscape has undergone significant upheaval and division, partially driven by Ethiopia’s neglect of the Pretoria Agreement. In early 2025, there was a change in the leadership of Tigray’s Interim Regional Administration (TIRA). After the relationship between the TPLF leadership and Getachew Reda reached its breaking point, in late March 2025, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed replaced Getachew as President of TIRA with a compromise figure, Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede. However, this move does not reflect the Abiy administration policy towards the TPLF and Tigray, as it continues to administratively and economically strangle the region, support anti-TPLF insurgencies, and slowly break down and divide Tigray. This is occurring as the people of Tigray have lost trust and faith in their leadership.

The broader global climate of war has contributed to the apathy and inadequate response to the crises in Tigray since the start of the genocidal war on Tigray. The most recent onslaught of bloodshed as the US and Israel declared war on Iran is no exception. This spiralling and devastating regional war – with reports
of atrocity crimes – has engulfed the very alliance systems arrayed around the Ethiopia-Eritrea divide, militarized the Red Sea corridor that sustains Ethiopia’s economy and Tigray’s humanitarian lifeline, and consumed the international attention and diplomatic bandwidth that would otherwise be available for deescalation in the Horn. Under this cover of global crisis, Prime Minister Abiy has issued his most direct threat yet to Eritrea, Sudan has formally accused Ethiopia of allowing drone attacks from its territory for the first time, the TDF has responded to the federal buildup by deploying heavy weapons, and the Ethiopian government has launched a systematic media crackdown mirroring the information blackout imposed at the start of the 2020 war.

For the people of Tigray, the reality remains one of silent genocide: a population suffering from deepening humanitarian and healthcare crises, persistent occupation of approximately 40% of their constitutional territory, ongoing atrocity crimes in occupied areas, and complete absence of justice and accountability. This silent genocide is at risk of once again becoming active. At a mass demonstration against the House of Federation’s electoral decision in Mekelle, Tigray’s Interim Administration President Tadesse Werede warned that if the current dispute leads to war, “it will endanger not only Tigray but the whole of Ethiopia.” Every indicator — military, diplomatic, informational, and humanitarian — is flashing red, and the world is looking the other way. The international community’s response continues to be woefully inadequate. The premature termination of international accountability mechanisms — including the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) and the AU Commission of Inquiry — has left victims without recourse. The AU’s Monitoring, Verification, and Compliance Mechanism (MVCM) has proven ineffective. The emerging proxy war dynamics between competing alliance systems threaten to engulf Tigray in yet another devastating conflict driven not by the interests of its people but by the geopolitical ambitions of external actors. Without an urgent course correction, the Pretoria Agreement will not only remain unimplemented, its weaponization against the people of Tigray will have been successful.

The humanitarian crisis in Tigray, Ethiopia, has been caused by one of the most devastating conflicts in modern history. Marked by genocide, famine, and mass displacement, it has unfolded largely in the shadow of global silence. Despite the signing of a cessation of hostilities agreement (CoHA) in November 2022, the situation remains dire, with continued instability, restricted humanitarian access, and ongoing human rights abuses and illegal occupation of Tigrayan territories. Recent statements from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signal an alarming escalation of genocidal rhetoric, making it clear that Tigray’s suffering is far from over. To make matters worse, internal divisions within Tigray’s political leadership are exacerbating the crisis, deepening the suffering of civilians who remain trapped in an unrelenting cycle of violence and deprivation.

The Tigrayan people have endured relentless suffering. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands have been killed due to direct violence, famine, and lack of medical care. Systematic starvation has been used as a weapon of war, with humanitarian aid deliberately obstructed and withheld to push Tigrayans toward the brink of extermination. Reports of mass conflict-related sexual violence, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and forced displacement continue to emerge, painting a horrifying picture of ethnic cleansing and genocide. Despite the CoHA, Tigray remains under siege. Eritrean and Amhara forces continue to occupy large parts of the region, perpetuating violence and preventing displaced persons from returning home. Infrastructure is in ruins—hospitals, schools, and roads lie in a state of devastation, with little to no reconstruction efforts underway. The Ethiopian government’s refusal to hold perpetrators accountable further erodes trust in any potential peace process.

Recent remarks by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed have only deepened fears of continued atrocities. His rhetoric has dangerously escalated, calling for the elimination of his political opponents in language disturbingly reminiscent of historical genocides. Such statements, in addition to an uptick in arrests of
Tigrayans outside of Tigray, serve as both a call to arms and an indication that the Ethiopian government has no real intention of securing peace for Tigray. Compounding these external threats is the worsening internal political crisis within Tigray itself. Divisions among the Tigrayan leadership have led to governance paralysis, internal power struggles, and disillusionment among the people. Rather than focusing on unity, rebuilding, and protecting the people’s interests, including ensuring Tigray’s territorial integrity and the return of the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs), factional disputes have created additional layers of instability, leaving civilians even more vulnerable. With trust in political institutions eroding, the suffering of ordinary Tigrayans is being prolonged not only by external aggression but also by internal disarray.

The international community’s response and its mechanisms for accountability and monitoring have been largely inadequate. Unlike other global crises that have prompted swift and large-scale action, Tigray has been met with hesitation, muted condemnations, and insufficient humanitarian efforts. While some countries have imposed limited sanctions and restrictions, they fall woefully short of the decisive action required to halt the ongoing genocide. Many of the soft-power tools employed to hold Ethiopia accountable for the crimes being committed in Tigray have been rolled back, with global institutions, like the World Bank, returning to the status quo. This selective approach to human suffering exposes deep-seated racial and geopolitical biases, illustrating whose lives are deemed worthy of saving. Without an international recommitment to hold Ethiopia accountable for implementing the CoHA and its atrocity crimes past and present, the silent genocide of Tigrayans will continue.

November 4, 2024, marks the four-year anniversary of the onset of the Tigray Genocide. On this day in 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war on Tigray, mobilizing the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), and regional militias from Amhara to launch a coordinated attack on Tigray. While the government framed the conflict as a “domestic law-and-order operation,” it has always been a full-scale genocidal war that targeted the Tigrayan people.

Armed forces from Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Amhara have carried out a widespread campaign of destruction. Conservative estimates suggest that between 600,000 and 800,000 individuals lost their lives as a result of the violence, atrocity crimes, and siege tactics between November 2021 to December 2022. Civilians in Tigray were subjected to extrajudicial killings, massacres, aerial bombardments, weaponized starvation amid agricultural destruction and the targeted destruction of the health system.

Among the most heinous acts, an estimated 120,000 women and girls have been subjected to widespread and systematic Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV). Additionally, millions of people have been displaced by acts of genocide, with countless families still living as internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Tigray and Ethiopia.

In November 2022, the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments signed a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) in Pretoria, South Africa. Although this agreement eased some tensions, a silent genocide under the veil of peace continues to unfold. The Ethiopian government has not upheld its end of the CoHA. Among its failures, it has not protected civilians in occupied and liberated areas nor facilitated the withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara occupying forces from Tigrayan territories. In areas illegally occupied by Eritrean forces, brutal CRSV is commonplace, as are enforced disappearances. In Western Tigray, Amhara forces have mostly successfully completed their campaign of ethnic cleansing, while waves of ethnic cleansing continue in parts of Northwestern Tigray. Given the ongoing occupations, most IDPs have not been able to return home, and those who have, have been met with hostility or forced to leave once again.

The impacts of the active war and genocide are countless. The deliberate destruction of vital infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and other institutions, has left Tigray on the brink of collapse, stripping its people of access to basic necessities and the means to rebuild their lives. The humanitarian crisis deepens, with millions at risk of famine, exacerbated by restricted access to essential humanitarian aid, an inadequate humanitarian response, and drought. Thousands have already perished due to starvation. Lack of immunizations, a debilitated health system, and a lack of tools to prevent and treat infectious diseases have resulted in numerous outbreaks, including those of malaria, cholera, and measles. While facing a hunger and health crisis, everyday life in Tigray is plagued by crimes and lawlessness without a functioning legal and justice system. Women and girls are regularly targeted, kidnapped, assaulted, and killed. The region’s youth are leaving the region in droves as opportunities and hope for a better future are dashed. As this silent genocide unfolds, the Ethiopian government continues to engage in beating the war drum with Tigray, engaging in fear-mongering and aggressive rhetoric. In parallel, Tigray’s leadership has failed to meet people’s needs while engaging in power struggles and divisiveness. Among the biggest failures of the international community and Tigray’s leadership is not facilitating justice and accountability for the countless atrocity crimes and crimes of genocide committed by domestic and international actors alike.

This four-year anniversary is a stark reminder of the devastation wrought by war and genocide. It underscores the urgent need for the international community to engage a culpable Ethiopian government to facilitate long-term solutions to bring peace, justice, and recovery to the region.

June 2024 marked the three-year anniversary of the liberation of most parts of Tigray from invading Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces. These forces had occupied the region starting from November 2021 and unleashed unimaginable horrors on the people of Tigray. Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces undertook a genocidal campaign of destruction, killing hundreds of thousands of people, displacing millions, weaponizing sexual violence against at least tens of thousands of people, and destroying the region’s food, water, and health infrastructure. In the wake of these attacks, which killed an estimated 600,000 – 800,000 people in Tigray and displaced millions, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) arose to defend themselves and their homes from these genocidal forces. Composed of ordinary men and women in Tigray who were driven to take up arms in self-defense, TDF forces fought valiantly to expel Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces from Tigray. In June 2021, TDF forces drove out these occupying forces from the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, and many other parts of Tigray, liberating much of Tigray and restoring the Tigray regional government. This occasion was met with jubilation and celebrations in the streets of Tigray and is commemorated as a day to celebrate the indomitable spirit and unimaginable sacrifices of Tigrayan forces.

While largely free of invaders after June 2021, Tigray continued to face a dire humanitarian crisis that is still being felt today. After being driven out of Mekelle, the Ethiopian government enacted a deadly siege, cutting Tigray off from food aid, medical supplies, utilities, and communications. In a second phase of the genocide, for months, millions of people in Tigray were encircled on all sides and denied essential food, medical, and other life-sustaining supplies. Moreover, while the TDF managed to liberate much of Tigray in June 2021, several parts of Tigray are still under the occupation of invading forces today. In particular, Eritrean forces continue to occupy Irob, and Amhara regional forces are occupying much of Western Tigray. While the signing of a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) in November 2022 eased some of the security concerns, the humanitarian condition in post-war Tigray is still dire and complex. Food insecurity remains high after years of war, which disrupted supplies and prevented farmers from working on their land. Moreover, the destruction of public infrastructure, utilities, and institutions has proven to be highly detrimental, negatively affecting the safety, security, and quality of life in the region.

One of the most pressing problems in the region is the high number of Internally Displaced People (IDPs). Hundreds of thousands of IDPs, forced from their homes in Western Tigray, have suffered under immensely difficult conditions for nearly four years. IDPs are leading extremely precarious livelihoods in major cities across Tigray, unable to access shelter, food, or jobs. All IDPs express their desire to return to their homes and begin rebuilding their lives but have been unable to do so because their homes are still under the occupation of Amhara and Eritrean forces. In July 2024, some Tigrayan IDPs began returning to their homes, which marked some progress in the implementation of the COHA. However, only a tiny fraction of the tens of thousands of IDPs have had the opportunity to return, and there are indications that Amhara regional forces and Fano militias are mobilizing to prevent the repatriation of Tigrayn IDPs. It is, therefore, vital that the Ethiopian federal government and other stakeholders work together to facilitate the return of Tigrayan IDPs and ensure the full implementation of the COHA.

Lastly, justice and accountability for the victims and survivors of the Tigray Genocide remains a distant possibility and elusive. However, in June 2024, a report by New Lines Institute, produced by a team of independent experts in international law, found that there is a reasonable basis to believe that Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces committed genocide against the Tigrayan people. As did the authors of this report, we urge the international community to explore and facilitate international mechanisms and pathways for justice and accountability for the people of Tigray.

March 2024 marks one year since the United States Department of State published a statement formally recognizing the war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing carried out in Ethiopia since the outbreak of the Tigray war in November 2020. As detailed in their 2023 Human Rights Report, the Department of State determined that while all parties to the conflict had committed war crimes, members of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), and the Amhara forces committed crimes against humanity, including murder, sexual violence, and persecution. This statement additionally noted that Amhara forces committed the crime against humanity of forcible transfer and ethnic cleansing in Western Tigray.

Since the outbreak of the genocidal war on Tigray in November 2020, an estimated 600,000 to 800,000 people have been killed, tens of thousands more injured, and more than two million people displaced. While nearly two million people are Internationally Displaced Persons (IDPs), tens of thousands of Tigrayans were forced to flee to neighboring Sudan and are currently caught amid the devastating war in Sudan. The war on Tigray also entailed systematic and widespread Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV), which has affected at least tens of thousands of people, primarily women and girls, and continues in occupied territories today.

Survivors of CRSV remain cut off from lifesaving medical and psycho-social aid and are still grappling with a myriad of medical and social challenges. The two-year siege enacted by the Ethiopian government and the wholesale destruction of medical facilities, schools, and public infrastructure undertaken by the ENDF, EDF, and Amhara forces during their occupation of Tigray has severely degraded the living conditions of all Tigrayans, leaving many without the means to sustain their livelihoods.

The signing of a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) in November 2022 was supposed to alleviate the immense suffering and humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray. While the CoHA managed to halt much of the active fighting, it has failed to improve the conditions of life within Tigray, free Tigray of foreign forces, and stop the silent genocide. Two years of war and a government-imposed blockade, combined with drought, have once again brought about a famine that has already killed thousands of people. Numerous reports by news organizations, regional officials, and humanitarian agencies concur that thousands of people have already died due to starvation, and tens of thousands more are at serious risk of death.

Vulnerable populations, including young children, pregnant people, young mothers, the elderly, and persons with disabilities, face the highest risk of starvation-related deaths. However, despite clear evidence of a devastating famine in Tigray, the Ethiopian government has maintained its modus operandi, failing to respond appropriately and downplaying the magnitude of the humanitarian catastrophe. Despite the mounting evidence, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopian government officials have repeatedly dismissed reports of famine in Tigray, where more than 90% of the population is facing the risk of starvation, according to the head of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray, Getachew Reda. The famine in Tigray could rival the 1984-1985 famine in Ethiopia that killed an estimated 1.2 million people. Therefore, all relevant stakeholders, including states and international organizations, must work to ensure that signatories uphold all articles of the 2022 CoHA, prioritize the protection of civilian lives, and address the unfolding catastrophe.

Date assessment started and completed: November 18 – December 8, 2023.

List of organizations participated:

Date assessment started and completed: December 10 to 20, 2023.

List of organizations participated:

Between October 13 and 16, 2023, Tigrayans worldwide partook in three days of mourning for all the lives lost in a genocidal war that has spanned 3 years. There were lives taken on the battlefield, as Tigrayans from all walks of life–farmers, professors, priests, students, and survivors of unspeakable atrocities–valiantly defended their people, their families from genocide.

In the days and weeks preceding the mourning period, families across Tigray, including those suffering in internally displaced camps, were officially informed of the martyrdom of their loved ones. The toll the genocidal war took on the people of Tigray became clear and memorialized. The loss of tens of thousands, of a generation of young people, in an effort to protect their families. There were also of course the hundreds of thousands of Tigrayan civilians who were killed at the hands of invading and genocidal forces. At the height of the war, Tigrayans had to make the decision to stay vulnerable to unimaginable atrocities carried out in Tigray’s cities, towns, and villages, or risk their lives and join Tigray’s defense forces to defend against the genocidal onslaught.

We mourn and honor each and every life lost–each grandparent, mother, father, sibling, relative, and friend taken. We also promise to continue to be a voice for those silenced and amplify Tigrayan voices. We will persist in our efforts for justice and accountability for all crimes committed, past and present, against the people of Tigray.

To the people of Tigray, you are not forgotten.

To allies and the international community, we urge you to take note of the ongoing immense suffering and atrocities taking place in Tigray and advocate for and facilitate an end to both.