Category: Monthly Report

Introduction

Multisectoral seasonal (emergency needs) assessment is an assessment conducted once in a year in all regions, under the leadership of  Disaster Risk Management Commission through its lower structures. Based on this, the team comprising of DRMC, government sectors from federal and regional bureaus, UN agencies and NGOs set out to conduct the emergency need assessment in Tigray region from 21^st November to 8^th December 2023. The non-food assessment covers health and nutrition, education, WASH, and social protection, and it helps to assess the health, nutrition, WASH, educational and social protection status of the drought prone woredas.  

As a result of ensuing malnutrition and consumption of unprotected and unsafe water, the communities are exposed to water borne illnesses, outbreaks of vaccine preventable diseases, skin infections to mention but few.

The drought also leads to high school drop-out rates; extended school closures resulted in teachers leaving the affected areas. 

Main objective 

 Assess the extent, type, magnitude, severity and likely of the different hazards (drought, human epidemics, conflict, floods, etc) and risks to the populations in the most vulnerable woredas (including identifying the most vulnerable populations) for health, nutrition, WASH, education and social protection related emergencies in Tigray region (From January up to October, 2024). 

The main objectives of the non-food components of the assessment are: 

• Assess the extent, type, magnitude, severity and likely of the different hazards (drought, human epidemics, conflict, floods, etc) and risks to the populations in the most vulnerable woredas (including identifying the most vulnerable populations) for health, nutrition, WASH, education and social protection related emergencies in Tigray region (From January up to October, 2024). 
• Assess the existing capacity of the basic social services such as health, nutrition WASH, education and social protection to address the emergencies likely to occur. It also determines the short coming (gap) in the capacity of the existing services to address the problem.
• Identify areas where emergency assistance might be needed and come up with reasonable estimates of the size of the population needing emergency assistance and the duration of assistance.
• Based on the findings on the assessment of risks for, and the need to address, potential emergencies and develop necessary plans for fostering preparedness sectors to adequately address  the potential emergencies; 

Agriculture remains the mainstay of the Tigray population with over 80% of its population dependent on agriculture for food and livelihood income and the region is divided into 16 livelihoods zone (HEA, 2016). However, the conflict which erupted in November 2020 has severely affected the agriculture livelihoods with major inflicts on infrastructure, loss of assets, mass livestock disease outbreak, and population displacement. Over 2.5 million of the people were displaced and still about one million of them remain displaced(IO/DTM 34) while over 1.5 million returned with no support who live in precarious conditions.

The Tigray region is currently facing a complex humanitarian crisis, with an alarming increase in food insecurity and loss of livelihoods, became of the cumulative effects of the two years of armed conflict and the current effects of El Niño. There is current metrological, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought in the region.

The region had about 1.1 million people who have been part of the productive safety net (PSNP) beneficiaries. This number has increased exponentially to over 5.2 million following the conflict in 2020. The humanitarian needs have been increasing throughout for the past three years due to mix of hazard mainly the conflict, drought, and crop pests and disease. While humanitarian needs continue to increase, there were limited rounds of food support in terms of social SafetyNet and emergency relief supports. Many of the existing close to one million IDPs reside with the host community and collective sites in schools mainly in towns (Shire, Axum, Adwa, Adigrat, Abiy Adi and Mekelle) and other government institutes and camps in Sudan. Moreover, influx of new IDPs triggered by fear of conflicts and the drought has continued.

The two years of conflict have resulted in inadequate access to food and income sources due to their significant disruptions to basic services and the Agricole sector in terms of damage and disruption of assets, damage to the irrigation infrastructure, livestock loss (looting, slaughtering and killing), and abilities of framers’ production. In addition to the consequences of the poor rain performance and input utilization, the impact of the war crisis significantly affected seasonal production and disrupted access to seed, extension support and human capital, and asset limitations.

November 4, 2023 marks three years since the onset of the genocidal war on Tigray. Over the last three years, Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), Amhara regional forces and Fano militias have unleashed a campaign of terror and destruction that has devastated Tigray. The most conservative estimates indicate that over 800,000 people have died in Tigray as a result of the genocidal war while tens of thousands more have been injured. The weaponized Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV) unleashed by the invading forces has affected tens of thousands of survivors and victims who still have not accessed the care and support they desperately need. The wholesale destruction as part of the war and subsequent siege by the Ethiopian government which prevented the transportation of vital supplies including food, medicine, among other humanitarian aid, into Tigray gave rise to famine which has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. Over 60,000 Tigrayans have been forced to flee to neighboring Sudan, where they are facing extremely dangerous conditions due to the conflict that erupted there in April 2023. Moreover, there are over 2 million internally displaced Tigrayans, many of whom have been ethnically cleansed from their homes in Western Tigray by Amhara regional forces and Fano militias. Internally Displaced People (IDPs) remain unable to access basic necessities including food and clean water, and are sheltering in makeshift camps, abandoned buildings, and schools in Tigray.

Overall, in terms of the magnitude of destruction and loss, the genocidal war on Tigray is the worst conflict of the 21st century to date.

The aerial bombardment, deliberate destruction, and urban warfare undertaken by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces has destroyed vital infrastructure, public facilities, and private property throughout Tigray. Facilities like hospitals, universities, and factories were deliberately targeted and destroyed by the invading forces, and most still remain non-functional. Health outcomes have worsened in the region, as hospitals are unable to provide the same level of care they did before the war. As such, people are dying due to illnesses and conditions that are treatable. Moreover, the disruption of medical supplies and vaccines has meant that childhood diseases that were nearly eradicated have returned.

Additionally, most children in Tigray have not been able to resume their studies as many schools are either completely destroyed or being used to shelter IDPs. The April 2023 decision by a number of humanitarian organizations, most notably the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), to suspend food aid in Tigray and in Ethiopia more broadly has severely exacerbated the famine crisis in the region and has already resulted in the deaths of thousands of people. In all, the destruction unleashed in Tigray over the last three years has decimated the region and will require a significant mobilization of resources to remedy.

Despite the November 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), human rights violations and atrocities continue unabated in Western Tigray, which is under the control of Amhara forces, and in Irob and other occupied areas in northern Tigray under the control of Eritrean forces. There are reports of sexual violence, forced displacement, enforced disappearances, illegal imprisonment, torture, and killings in and around these areas under occupation. It is incumbent on the signatories and facilitators of the CoHA to ensure that the terms of the agreement are implemented and adhered to.

This requires the immediate and verifiable removal of Amhara forces from Western Tigray and the resettlement of Tigrayan IDPs back in their homes and the verifiable removal of Eritrean forces from all parts of Tigray. Moreover, rehabilitation and support for all those affected by the war is desperately needed. Finally, it is vital for all stakeholders to ensure the establishment of a robust and legitimate justice and accountability mechanism. With the Human Rights Council’s failure to renew the mandate of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE), it is incumbent on all states to establish an independent mechanism to ensure accountability for the war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide perpetrated against Tigrayans.

June 2023 marks two years and seven months since the onset of the genocidal war against Tigray by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces. Declared by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on November 4, 2020, the devastating war against Tigray has caused the death of an estimated 600,000 – 800,000 people over the last 31 months. Moreover, tens of thousands have suffered serious injuries, over 60,000 people have fled to neighboring Sudan, and more than 2 million people have been internally displaced within Tigray. Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV) has been a key feature of the genocidal war, and the most conservative estimates indicate that tens of thousands of women, girls, men, and boys have been subjected to horrific attacks. Since November 2020, Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces have wrought devastating destruction across Tigray, deliberately targeting and destroying vital civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, and public facilities. These forces have additionally carried out large-scale looting and destruction of private property, leaving millions of people unable to sustain themselves. The deadly and illegal siege imposed by the Ethiopian government for much of the last two years, which stopped the flow of vital supplies and lifesaving medical and food aid, has degraded food security in Tigray, leaving millions of people in severe food insecurity. Overall, the genocidal war has resulted in catastrophic living conditions across most parts of Tigray while reeling from the trauma of genocide.

The crisis-level food insecurity in Tigray has only worsened since the signing of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA).

While the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) on November 2, 2022, which abated much of the fighting, the CoHA is far from being fully implemented and has yet to alleviate the immense humanitarian crisis in Tigray. While the CoHA stipulates that all parties must ensure unhindered humanitarian access, such access has not been granted, leaving millions of people in catastrophic humanitarian conditions. The crisis-level food insecurity in Tigray has only worsened since the signing of the CoHA, with people dying from malnutrition and starvation-related illnesses. Conditions will only worsen as the World Food Programme (WFP) has extended its food aid suspension in Tigray and announced its countrywide suspension.

Furthermore, while the CoHA calls for the immediate removal of invading forces from Tigrayan territory, Eritrean and Amhara forces continue to occupy large swaths of Tigray. While Eritrean forces are occupying parts of Northern Tigray, and in particular, the homelands of the Irob and Kunama people, Amhara forces still maintain control of Western Tigray. This ongoing occupation has dire consequences for the Tigrayans living under Eritrean and Amhara control, who continue to face physical and psychological torment, intimidation, attacks against their identity, and the threat of death. Moreover, until the invading forces leave all parts of Tigray they are occupying, the 2+ million Internally Displaced People (IDPs) cannot return to their homes and begin to rebuild their lives. Currently, IDPs are taking refuge in makeshift shelters in abandoned buildings or schools and struggling to survive amid the severe food insecurity in Tigray. On May 23, 2023, IDPs held region-wide demonstrations in Tigray, demanding the right to return to their homes and resume their lives. It is incumbent on the signatories of the agreement and partners who facilitated the CoHA to ensure that IDPs are able to do so and begin rebuilding their livelihoods.

In addition to ensuring that the CoHA is implemented in its entirety, all stakeholders must also pay close attention to recent developments that may undermine and threaten the fragile peace in the region. Primary among them are the ongoing acts of violence by Eritrean forces and the role of Eritrea as a spoiler in the peace process. In May 2023, Getachew Reda, president of the Interim Regional Administration (IRA) in Tigray, shared in a public broadcast that Eritrean forces are obstructing the work of the African Union-appointed Monitoring, Verification, and Compliance Mission (MVCM). Unless the international community and domestic stakeholders work to fully implement the CoHA and expel invading Eritrean forces from all parts of Tigray, Eritrea will continue to be a spoiler in the peace process. Furthermore, in May 2023, the TPLF’s request to be reinstated as a political party was rejected by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). NEBE additionally announced that the TPLF can only operate as a political party if it submits a re-registration request and the board approves it. While NEBE laid out a legal rationale for this rejection, the decision has been met with significant criticism on the part of the IRA in Tigray, which has cautioned that this decision threatens the CoHA. Government institutions must uphold the rule of law, and any significant decisions that threaten the fragile agreement must be considered closely to avoid fallout between key stakeholders.

The genocidal war on Tigray, which officially began when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war on November 4, 2020, is the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world. Over the last 28 months, an estimated 600,000 people have died in Tigray, and more than 2 million have been displaced. Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces, which launched the joint attack against Tigray, have undertaken a deliberate and comprehensive campaign of destruction and massacres across the region, which has devastated its people. In addition to the shocking death toll of this war, tens of thousands of people have been subjected to systematic and widespread Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV). Moreover, the brutal siege imposed on Tigray for the most part of two years has produced severe food insecurity, medical shortages, and a lack of basic supplies. The coordinated destruction of the medical infrastructure of the region has exacerbated the humanitarian conditions further, preventing Tigrayans from receiving care. In all, while the full scale of the devastation in Tigray has been hidden from view due to the Ethiopian government’s communication and information blockade, all accounts indicate that it is one of—if not the bloodiest conflict in the world today.

While a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) was signed between representatives of the Tigrayan and Ethiopian governments in November 2022, conditions on the ground in Tigray have not significantly improved. In the months since the signing of the CoHA, while active fighting has stopped in many places, the dire humanitarian conditions in Tigray have significantly deteriorated. Despite its promise to ensure open and unhindered transportation of humanitarian and medical supplies into Tigray, thus far, the CoHA has failed to deliver relief to vast areas of Tigray. Many rural localities in the region remain inaccessible to aid organizations, and consequently, millions of people have not received the support they desperately need. Moreover, as shown by recent reporting in the Washington Post and BBC, during and after the signing of the CoHA, Tigrayan civilians were still being subjected to horrific violence at the hands of Eritrean soldiers. In February, BBC reported that in the weeks following the CoHA, Eritrean soldiers were committing horrific acts of CRSV against Tigrayan women and girls. Similarly, in late February, the Washington Post published a story about massacres carried out by Eritrean soldiers in the area of Mariam Shewito in November 2022, the same month the CoHA was signed. Overall, the CoHA has failed to deliver on some of its fundamental promises, such as ensuring the safety of civilians. It is, therefore, incumbent on the signatories and supporters to ensure that its terms and conditions are immediately met by verifying the withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces and ensuring unfettered humanitarian access.

Currently, the Tigray regional government is undertaking the political restructuring required by the agreement. It is vital for the government and all stakeholders to ensure that the political arrangement that emerges from this restructuring is inclusive, diverse, and sustainable. Just as all segments of Tigrayan society were affected by the genocidal war, all segments must be meaningfully included in any governance structure that seeks to redress the injustices of the last two years and establish the foundation for sustainable peace. As such, an open and inclusive process is of vital importance. Similarly, long-lasting peace can only be ensured when accountability measures are in place. An attempt to trade justice for the hope of peace adds to the injury of the last two years and risks making any existing arrangements temporary.

It has been 27 months since the deadliest war of the 21st century broke out in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. Officially declared on November 4, 2020, this war in which Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), Eritrean forces, and Amhara forces launched an all-out attack against the 7+ million people of Tigray, has killed an estimated 600,000 to 800,000 people. A key strategy of the Ethiopian government’s war has been a complete telecommunication and reporting blackout, which has served to conceal the extent of the devastation in Tigray. However, the limited information available provides a glimpse into the scale of the catastrophe. Tens of thousands of people, including children, have sustained serious injuries from indiscriminate shelling, bombing, and landmines planted by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. Tens of thousands more have been subjected to heinous systematic and widespread Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV), including rape, gang rape, and sexual slavery. Millions of people have been displaced from their homes in an organized campaign of ethnic cleansing and have sought refuge in neighboring countries as well as makeshift shelters in cities across Tigray, where they are unable to access humanitarian and medical aid. The Ethiopian government’s siege and blockade have halted the flow of humanitarian supplies, goods and services, and money into Tigray for over two years, leaving seven million people without a way to sustain life.

In November 2022, representatives of the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments signed a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) in South Africa. This agreement promised to alleviate the human suffering in Tigray and build a path toward sustainable peace and justice. However, since the CoHA, there has been very little improvement in the conditions of life in Tigray. While the CoHA was supposed to expedite the unfettered flow of humanitarian supplies into Tigray, the aid that has been entering the region is extremely limited in comparison to the scale of the need. This is especially the case for much-needed medical supplies, which have been trickling into the region at an extremely slow pace. Health professionals in Tigray share that the supplies they have received are nowhere near enough to address the healthcare catastrophe they are attempting to manage.

The CoHa additionally promised to facilitate the removal of non-ENDF forces from Tigray. Eritrean and Amhara forces occupying large swaths of Tigray have been accused of the most heinous crimes against civilians, and their immediate removal is vital for ending the atrocities. In January 2023, Eritrean forces made a show of leaving some parts of Tigray, waving their flag and displaying grotesque messages celebrating the atrocities they committed against men, women, and children in Tigray. Some of these messages gloated over the war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide the Eritrean army committed in Tigray, while others declared, “We are savages to our enemies.” Despite the Ethiopian government’s January 2023 statement that non-ENDF forces have left Tigray, eyewitness accounts, photographic evidence, and a statement by U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Linda Thomas-Greenfield all confirm their continued presence in Tigray. It is also to be remembered that the Ethiopian government repeatedly denied the presence of Eritrean forces in Tigray throughout 2020 and 2021. The continued presence of these invading forces in Tigray not only jeopardizes the well-being of Tigrayan civilians but poses a direct threat to the nascent peace process. As such, the international community must call for the immediate and verified withdrawal of all invading forces from all parts of Tigray.