Reflection on post-war and the gaps for lasting peace in Tigray, Ethiopia

Today marks 2 years since the signing of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray leadership. The CoHA marked a pivotal moment in the search for stability after two years of a brutal genocidal war that the Ethiopian government and its allies launched on November 4, 2020. While the agreement has brought an end to active fighting, many underlying issues remain unresolved. Thus far, the Ethiopian government and international community have largely focused on Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR), rather than an end to the ongoing Amhara and Eritrean occupations of Tigrayan territories where atrocity crimes continue, the return of those internally displaced from occupied areas, and justice and accountability for the atrocities committed during the war. This focus reflects the urgent need to stabilize the region, but it also raises concerns about whether true healing can take place without addressing the suffering endured by millions.

The CoHA has made significant strides in bringing about a ceasefire, disarming combatants, and restoring some form of normalcy to war-torn regions. In Tigray, humanitarian aid has started flowing into some areas that were once inaccessible, giving some relief to the millions affected by famine and displacement. The return of communication and services to parts of Tigray has also allowed families to reconnect after years of being cut off. These steps have laid a foundation, though fragile, for rebuilding shattered communities. Yet, since the CoHA signing, Tigray’s humanitarian needs are far from being addressed, as the humanitarian response has been inadequate at best and negligent at worst. The urgency of addressing basic needs remains pressing. Children need to return to school, farmers must receive the support necessary to restart agricultural production, and the healthcare system—barely functioning after the war—must be restored. Crimes against humanity continue unabated in occupied areas. In Irob district, home to one of Tigray’s minorities, weaponized sexual violence and enforced disappearances, amid ethnic cleansing, is commonplace. In Western Tigray, and parts of northwestern and southern Tigray, Amhara forces and militias still terrorize Tigrayans and protect the Amhara region’s illegal governance structure. Over a million internally displaced persons and tens of thousands of refugees have not been able to return home. Without addressing these critical areas, the long-term success of the peace process remains uncertain. 

However, the emphasis on DDR shows that the immediate priority was securing an end to the fighting on the ground and preventing a return to violence. Though DDR is important, what is key and stipulated in the CoHA is that disarmanent occurs in parrallel to ensuring and maintaining the safety and secuity of Tigrayans–which has yet to occur. That said, every effort to reintegrate the thousands of fighters into civilian life and to help rebuild their lives should be supported. This disarmament process if done right and among all belligerent parties is crucial for maintaining peace, but it does not address the deeper wounds left by the genocidal war.

Justice and accountability have been notably absent from the core discussions of the peace process. Survivors of the war on Tigray, particularly those who have experienced war crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, and brutal sexual violence, are left wondering when or if their suffering will be acknowledged. The absence of a clear path toward justice has raised concerns that those responsible for atrocities may never face justice. Though a commitment to justice and accountability was stipulated in the agreement, and the Ethiopian government drafted a transitional justice framework, much is left to be desired. This framework, which provides false equivalence of crimes committed across Ethiopia and does not address the acts of genocide committed by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces, has yet to be really implemented nor can it offer adequate accountability. The silence of the international community and Tigray’s leadership on justice and accountability suggests that political stability has been prioritized over addressing the needs of victims. 

This trade-off between immediate peace and long-term justice is a familiar dilemma in post-conflict settings. As Omna Tigray, BBC, and other observers have pointed out, securing a fragile peace often takes precedence, especially when the risk of reigniting conflict is high. The Ethiopian government and the United States Special Envoy for the Horn Africa, Mike Hammer, likely saw DDR as the quickest way to reduce tensions, but this has left many questioning whether lasting peace is possible without justice.

The international community cautiously welcomed the CoHA in 2022, but many survivors and victims in Tigray still share their concern that justice may be indefinitely delayed. Without clear mechanisms for accountability, the deep wounds left by the genodical war risk being overlooked. Such an oversight threatens to allow injustice to persist, making genuine reconciliation elusive. For true healing to occur, these mechanisms must be prioritized, ensuring that those affected are heard and that the cycle of impunity is broken.

As the situation in Tigray unfolds, one thing is clear: peace without justice is incomplete. While DDR is essential for stabilizing the region and preventing further violence, the long-term success of the peace process will depend on whether the Ethiopian government and Tigray’s leaders can ensure peace across Tigray and create a path for accountability and reconciliation. The world is still watching to see if this agreement leads to a just and lasting peace, or if it merely postpones an inevitable reckoning with the past.

Much remains to be done to have a chance at peace. The focus remains on disarmament and reintegration, but the call for justice grows louder each day. As Tigray and Ethiopia rebuild, the question will persist: can peace be truly sustained without acknowledging and addressing the crimes that were committed during the genocidal war? Only time will tell.