Category: Monthly Report

It has been 26 months since the Ethiopian government declared a genocidal war on Tigray. In that time, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) and regional forces from the neighboring Amhara region have committed war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide throughout Tigray. Due to the Ethiopian government’s communications blockade, we have yet to uncover the full scale of the atrocities unleashed over the last two years. However, reports indicate that over 600,000 thousand people have died due to the war since 2020. Additionally, tens of thousands have been victims of systematic and widespread Conflict Related Sexual Violence (CRSV). While over 70,000 have been forced to leave their home and flee to neighboring Sudan, there are over 2 million Internally Displaced People (IDPs) in Tigray, many displaced several times, taking shelter in abandoned buildings and schools. Many of the IDPs come from areas near the Eritrean border and from Western Tigray, which has been a site of egregious ethnic cleansing. Finally, due to the Ethiopian government’s campaign of destruction, ongoing siege, and aid blockade, a devastating famine has taken hold in Tigray. With malnutrition rates at emergency levels, especially among children, pregnant women, nursing mothers, the elderly, and other vulnerable populations, hundreds of thousands of lives are in jeopardy. Unless reliable and unrestricted aid flow is restored in Tigray immediately, millions risk severe malnutrition and starvation related deaths.

As highlighted in the December Situation report, in the last week of October 2022, representatives from the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments met in South Africa to negotiate a Cessation of Hostilities of Agreement (CoHA). Since this meeting, the representatives have met twice in Nairobi, Kenya to work out the implementation of the Agreement. In an unprecedented development, on December 26, 2022, a high-level delegation of the Ethiopian federal government visited Mekelle, Tigray, to hold talks with leaders of the Tigray regional government. These are important developments that can facilitate an end to the unimaginable suffering the people of Tigray are still enduring. However, there are several important points to note. First, essential services including electricity, internet, and banking remain inaccessible for the overwhelming majority of the Tigrayan people. Therefore, it is of paramount importance that the Ethiopian government lift its deadly siege and restore essential services across the region. Second, while two sets of leaders who were at war a few months ago coming together to hold discussions is an encouraging step, it must be followed up with action that can deliver relief to the millions of people they represent.

As such, leaders of the Tigrayan and Ethiopian governments must work together to ensure the immediate and verified withdrawal of Eritrean forces who are still marauding across Tigray committing innumerable atrocities. Third, it must be emphasized that peace is not a substitute for justice and accountability, but rather, a requirement for both. Therefore, ensuring that justice by way of investigations is delivered for millions in Tigray who have endured war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide must be part and
parcel of the peace process.

December 2022 marks the 25th month of the genocidal war on Tigray, the world’s largest and deadliest war. The last two years of attacks by Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), and Amhara regional forces and militia have devastated this region of about 7 million people in a myriad of ways. Since the onset of the war in November 2020, an estimated 600,000 people have died due to bombings, shellings, massacres, man-made famine, and siege. Over 60,000 Tigrayans have been forced to seek refuge in Sudan, while over two million are internally displaced. Widespread and systematic Conflict-Related Sexual Violence (CRSV) has been unleashed by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces, affecting at least tens of thousands of survivors in the region. The man-made famine, which has already taken the lives of tens of thousands, threatens the health and wellness of thousands more, especially children, pregnant women, and nursing mothers. Large-scale looting and destruction have destroyed the region’s health infrastructure, leaving the vast majority of health facilities in Tigray non-functional. Due to the communication and information blockade enacted by the Ethiopian government, only a small percentage of the atrocities unleashed in Tigray have been documented. Yet, this limited data provides a glimpse into the depth and scale of atrocities Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces have committed.

In the last week of October 2022, after nearly two years of fighting, representatives from the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments met in South Africa to negotiate a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA). This agreement was signed on November 2, 2022, and was supposed to go into effect immediately. The CoHA promises to alleviate the unimaginable suffering in Tigray by stipulating the imperative for protecting civilians, allowing humanitarian aid into Tigray, and restoring essential services. As underscored by multiple speakers during the signing ceremony in Pretoria, the agreement is the beginning of a long and complex process that the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan regional government must undertake to alleviate the suffering in Tigray and achieve lasting peace. The CoHA’s effectiveness in doing so depends entirely on the willingness and ability of signatories to abide by and respect its terms. Unfortunately, in the month since the signing of this deal, there has not been adequate action to meet the expectations outlined in the agreement. As shown in the following section, a month after the Pretoria Agreement (CoHA) and two weeks after the subsequent agreement in Nairobi, conditions in Tigray have only worsened. Without an effective enforcement mechanism and independent monitors, the agreements cannot bring the results intended. It is, therefore, incumbent on the African Union (AU) and all regional and international partners to ensure that signatories abide by the terms of the agreements.

It has been nearly two years since Ethiopia and Eritrea began waging a genocidal war against the seven million people of Tigray. The 23 months since the beginning of the war have brought an unimaginable level of human suffering and deeply destabilized not only Ethiopia but the larger Horn of Africa region. The genocidal war on Tigray is the deadliest ongoing conflict in the world and has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Conservative estimates suggest that over 500,000 Tigrayans have perished in the last 23 months. During their occupation of large swaths of Tigrayan territory, Ethiopia, Eritrean and Amhara forces shelled and bombed cities and rural civilian settlements, killing scores. Moreover, hundreds of massacres were carried out against Tigrayan civilians, some of which have been captured on video. In recent months, the majority of the fatalities have been caused by the Ethiopian government’s inhumane siege. Since the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) liberated many areas of Tigray in June 2021, the Ethiopian government has maintained a deadly siege and de-facto humanitarian blockade, preventing civilian access to vital services like banking, telecommunications, and transportation. Tigrayans cannot withdraw and use their own money from banks and are disconnected from the outside world. With very few exceptions, flights, buses, and cars are prohibited from traveling into or out of the region. For nearly two years, a region of seven million people has been effectively cut off from the world while its citizens face a genocidal siege from all sides.

Among the crimes committed since November 2020 are wholesale destruction, looting, aerial attacks targeting civilians, torture, unlawful detention, extrajudicial killings, massacres, weaponized Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV), and weaponizing humanitarian aid and access. Most recently, on August 26, 2022, the Ethiopian government bombed a residential area in Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, hitting a kindergarten and causing dozens of casualties. This airstrike was followed by the bombing of other residential areas and the surrounding area of Mekelle General Hospital on the night of August 30. The Ethiopian government continues to act with impunity, killing civilians. Airstrikes are likely to continue as the Ethiopian government and its allies from the Amhara region and Eritrea launched an offensive on Tigray on four separate fronts on September 1, 2022. The latest aerial attack occurred on September 14, 2022, and killed ten civilians. The resumption of full-scale war comes as the international community failed to facilitate peace negotiations and largely ignored the signs of impending war.

This siege also extends to and significantly affects efforts to deliver lifesaving food and medical aid to the people of Tigray. Since June 2021, a tiny proportion of the humanitarian assistance necessary to avoid mass deaths in Tigray has been allowed to enter the region. By all estimates, nearly a million people in Tigray live in famine conditions, while over five million people face severe food insecurity. Food insecurity is especially deadly for vulnerable populations, including children, pregnant women, and the elderly. Malnutrition rates among these groups, especially children and pregnant and lactating women, have reached as high as 70%, a catastrophic level. In addition to restricting the supply of vital food aid, the Ethiopian government’s deadly siege has depleted Tigray’s medical supplies. Due to deliberate attacks, the region’s health infrastructure has completely collapsed, leaving millions of people without healthcare. Hospitals in the region have run out of supplies and cannot provide care for patients with diabetes, cancer, or the tens of thousands of women and girls who have been victims of weaponized Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV) perpetrated by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces. Additionally, the Ethiopian government’s inhumane siege is especially catastrophic for the over two million Internally Displaced People (IDPs) throughout Tigray.

In late August 2022, after a brief period of hope surrounding negotiations between the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments, military engagements intensified between allied Ethiopian and Eritrean forces and Tigrayan forces. It is vital to note that hostilities against Tigray have not stopped in their entirety since November 2020. Despite ostensibly declaring a ceasefire in June 2021, the Ethiopian government and its allies have been engaging with Tigrayan forces in the areas around Tigray’s borders. Moreover, Eritrean and Amhara troops have established and maintained control over large swaths of Tigrayan territory in Western Tigray and occupied lands inhabited by Tigray’s minorities–the Irob and Kunama. However, there was a lull in direct military engagements during the summer of 2022, facilitated in part by the Tigray government expressing its desire for negotiations. But in August and September 2022, Ethiopian and Eritrean forces mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers, who waged numerous attacks on Tigrayan soil. Eritrean forces have been ruthless in their attacks, bombing and shelling entire towns and killing countless civilians. Areas along the Eritrean border have borne the brunt of these indiscriminate attacks, resulting in devastating casualties and a fresh wave of displacements. Videos and pictures emerging from the targeted border region show entire neighborhoods flattened by air raids and the bodies of victims being recovered from the ruins.

The international community’s response to these most recent deadly developments has been extremely muted, which will only embolden the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments to continue their indiscriminate war crimes against civilians and violations of international law. Members of the international community have failed to effectively respond to the deliberate and coordinated genocidal efforts of the Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara governments, abrogating their duty under the law and overseeing continued death and destruction.

Twenty-two months into the genocidal war on Tigray, the Ethiopian government and its allies have broken the “humanitarian truce” and resumed their full-scale active war on besieged Tigray, which has been without enough food and essential services since November 2020. Since the start of the genocidal war, an estimated 500,000 people have been killed through militarized violence, starvation, and lack of access to healthcare. Today, the people of Tigray are again subjected to an offensive by brutal invading forces that have previously committed countless atrocities amounting to war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide.

Among the crimes committed since November 2020 are wholesale destruction, looting, aerial attacks targeting civilians, torture, unlawful detention, extrajudicial killings, massacres, weaponized Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV), and weaponizing humanitarian aid and access. Most recently, on August 26, 2022, the Ethiopian government bombed a residential area in Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, hitting a kindergarten and causing dozens of casualties. This airstrike was followed by the bombing of other residential areas and the surrounding area of Mekelle General Hospital on the night of August 30. The Ethiopian government continues to act with impunity, killing civilians. Airstrikes are likely to continue as the Ethiopian government and its allies from the Amhara region and Eritrea launched an offensive on Tigray on four separate fronts on September 1, 2022. The latest aerial attack occurred on September 14, 2022, and killed ten civilians. The resumption of full-scale war comes as the international community failed to facilitate peace negotiations and largely ignored the signs of impending war.

While the international community focused on the prospect of peace negotiations between the Tigray and the Ethiopian governments, it did little to assure their success. International actors put their support behind an African Union (AU) led peace process that was ill-fated from the beginning, as the AU’s High Representative for the Horn of Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo, often put forth Ethiopian government talking points. Furthermore, had the international community paid attention and recognized the Ethiopian government’s preparations for more war, adequate pressure could have been applied to the Ethiopian government to restore essential services in Tigray and end hostilities. Instead, the Abiy administration did precisely what the European Union’s Ambassador to Ethiopia called against at the beginning of June 2022: using a humanitarian truce to prepare for another war.

Peace negotiations failed despite the Tigray government and Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)’s commitment to peace. For a region besieged for almost two years, peace in the interest of mitigating human suffering has been the main objective. However, despite shows of good faith by the Tigray government, including withdrawing the TDF from Afar and Amhara regions and releasing 4,000 prisoners of war whose existence the Ethiopian government denied, the Ethiopian government continued an inhumane siege and humanitarian blockade. No one will suffer more from renewed war than Tigrayan civilians who do not have access to a functioning health system and Tigrayans across Ethiopia who are being unlawfully detained in a new wave of mass arrests. Tigray, however, has been put in a position where it has no choice but to defend itself from invading forces. We continue to call on the international community to condemn the actions of the Ethiopian government and its allies and take concrete and stern steps to stop the genocidal war on Tigray.

Into its 20th month, the genocidal war on Tigray continues with the ongoing occupation of Western Tigray and Irob and a siege that has worsened a humanitarian crisis in which Tigray’s 7 million people are at risk of starvation and death from preventable diseases. Since November 2020, at least an estimated 500,000 Tigrayans have perished. Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara regional forces have subjected hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans to mass scale atrocities. These have included weaponized Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV), weaponized hunger, massacres, internment, torture, forced displacement, wholesale destruction, and looting of property and public infrastructure. Tigray remains without essential services, still cut off from electricity and bank and telecommunication services. Though delivery of humanitarian aid has shown some improvement since April 2022, the need in Tigray is immense while the response remains largely inadequate, with lack of fuel hindering relief efforts.

To address the humanitarian crisis and man-made famine in Tigray, at least 285 trucks a day must enter Tigray accompanied by fuel supplies to distribute aid to communities in need. Since April 2022, per the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), 6,105 trucks (22 days worth) have reached Tigray’s capital city of Mekelle without the necessary fuel to distribute it. In July 2022, after a call from the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), some fertilizer reached Mekelle in an attempt to save the planting season, though lack of fuel will likely hinder its distribution, and seeds and more fertilizer are required.

The conditions for Tigrayans across Ethiopia continue to be perilous as waves of mass arrests have intensified in Addis Ababa since July 2022. On July 4, the Tigray government released a statement on the ongoing mass detention of Tigrayans across Ethiopia. It highlighted the detainment of tens of thousands of Tigrayans in camps across the country and the Ethiopian Humans Rights Commission (EHRC)’s selective statement on thousands of Tigrayans languishing in camps in Afar region. In addition, footage of mass graves of Tigrayans who have died from inhumane conditions in a concentration camp in Semera, Afar, has surfaced. The security of Tigrayan refugees in Sudan also continues to be under threat. The World Food Programme (WFP) announced that it would be halving the support to refugees from its already insufficient stock supply.

As the safety and security of Tigrayans across Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa remain unattainable, domestic and regional stability continue to deteriorate. Though Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration speaks of a national dialogue, extreme violence continues in Oromia and Benishangul Gumuz. At the same time, the drought in Somali, Oromia, and Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ regions goes unaddressed. In July 2022, a clash between Al-Shabaab and Ethiopian police left 17 officers dead, and the conflict has only escalated with the Ethiopian government sending its forces to the Somali-Ethiopia border. Tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia at the border have been assuaged by a meeting between Abiy and Sudan’s General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan; however, what this rapprochement means for the tens of thousands of Tigrayans in refugee camps in Sudan remains to be seen. Additionally, he tripartite alliance between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia appears to be on the path to renewal after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Asmara, Eritrea.

Despite the continued dire need for basic necessities such as food, clean water, medicine, shelter, fuel, and electricity in Tigray, the international community has become complacent in its response as it focuses on the ceasefire declared at the end of March 2022 and on the pending peace negotiations that have reportedly been delayed. The World Bank is even set to provide the Ethiopian government with millions of dollars to rebuild Tigray while Tigray is still under siege. The stalled peace process and providing funding to rebuild Tigray to those who destroyed it do not serve the immediate and long-term interests of Tigrayans, who are still cut off from essential services and the rest of the world. The international community’s stance has also done nothing to curb mass arrests and detainment of Tigrayans in concentration camps in Ethiopia or to stabilize the region. The international community must keep pressuring the Ethiopian government to ensure unfettered access to Tigray and restore essential services while facilitating the verifiable withdrawal of invading forces from Tigray and ensuring accountability is pursued.

It has been over 600 days since the genocidal war on Tigray was declared by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, endangering the lives of 7 million Tigrayans and resulting in one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. On June 14, 2022, United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reported that “at least 33,000 children in inaccessible parts of Tigray are severely malnourished and face imminent death without immediate health.” They added that weekly treatment admission for severe acute malnutrition increased our-fold in one month. The man-made famine in Tigray is exacerbated by the deliberate destruction and looting of health facilities and the targeting of health care workers, resulting in a total collapse of the Tigrayan health system. The genocidal war on Tigray is waged by the Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, along with Amhara militias and vigilantes. It is estimated that as many as 500,000 people have died from war and famine in Tigray over 16 months. Invading forces have engaged in ethnic cleansing, deliberate blocking of humanitarian aid, weaponized rape, extrajudicial killings of civilians, and many other grave crimes against humanity and international humanitarian law violations that together would amount to genocide if investigated.

Presently in Tigray, it is the primary planting season, and there is a serious concern that farmers will be unable to sow their fields, further worsening food insecurity. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “with the rainfall outlook foreseen to be favorable, the season offers a crucial and cost-effective opportunity to improve food availability across the region” [1]. The call for seeds and fertilizers, and the threat posed to the planting season by the ongoing siege on Tigray, have been repeatedly mentioned by international partners with little gains achieved. The deliberate withholding of fertilizers and seeds should be understood as a feature of the ongoing man-made famine so that the people of Tigray perish by hunger now that active fighting has ended in most of the region.

The instability and violence across Ethiopia also continue. On June 19, 2022, over 200 Amhara civilians were killed in Ethiopia’s regional state of Oromia. While there are disputes over who is responsible for the killings, it is reflective of a broader issue across the country: widespread violence that the Abiy administration has either facilitated or the administration’s failure to exert control over allied forces and subnational actors. Additionally, on June 26, 2022, Sudan’s military accused Ethiopia’s army of capturing and executing seven Sudanese soldiers and one civilian.

Despite widespread instability and the Ethiopian government preparing for war, Abiy speaks of peace in Tigray. During his June 2022 address to Parliament, Abiy revealed that his administration is ready to move towards negotiations with the Government of Tigray, announcing the creation of a negotiation committee to be led by Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen. The announcement of the talks follows the Government of Tigray’s good-faith gesture in releasing over 4,000 prisoners of war and the Abiy administration’s slight improvement in facilitating humanitarian aid into Tigray. While international partners are hopeful about the negotiations between the Abiy administration and the Government of Tigray, they must not prematurely rush to fully normalize relations until the Ethiopian government restores all essential services in Tigray and humanitarian aid is disbursed with fertilizers, seeds, and fuel guaranteed.

It has been more than 19 months since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war against the 7 million people of Tigray. While this war has been fought under the cover of a complete information blackout, the limited information that has emerged indicates the depth of the humanitarian catastrophe caused by the Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces during their ongoing genocidal campaign. According to reports, an estimated 500,000 people have died in the last 19 months, while tens of thousands more have been seriously injured, including at least 22,000 women and girls who have been subjected to weaponized Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV). Moreover, more than 2.2 million people are displaced, and over 900,000 people in Tigray live in famine, with millions more facing acute food shortages. The wholesale destruction of Tigray will have consequences for generations to come, including food insecurity caused by agricultural and environmental destruction.

Since June 2021, when the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) pushed invading forces out of most parts of Tigray, the Ethiopian government has enacted a deadly siege prohibiting the flow of humanitarian aid and supplies into Tigray. Only a tiny fraction of the aid required to avert the starvation and death of hundreds of thousands has made it into the region because of the Ethiopian government’s blockade. Moreover, for almost a year now, Tigrayans have been denied essential services such as electricity, telecommunication, and bank services. Further, transportation in and out of the region has been banned. While the Ethiopian government declared what is claimed to be a humanitarian truce in March 2022, to date, a minuscule percentage of the required aid has made it into Tigray. Unless the unhindered and consistent flow of aid into Tigray is immediately guaranteed, hundreds of thousands may perish from the man-made famine.

In May 2022, the Tigray regional government released 4,208 Prisoners of War (POWs). Among the released POWs are women, people with illnesses, and persons with disabilities. The Tigray government’s announcement and the release of POWs were greeted with indifference by the Ethiopian government, which has denied the very existence of the POWs. However, it is evident that the release of these POWs comes as great relief for the prisoners and their families and is a sign of goodwill on the part of the Tigray regional government.

Despite the evident lack of reciprocal goodwill by the Ethiopian government, which continues to imprison tens of thousands of Tigrayans who served faithfully as part of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, there have been attempts by some international actors to normalize relations with the Abiy regime and its supporters. In May 2022, the U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia hosted a regime supporter who has repeatedly made genocidal calls against Tigrayans. At the same time, the European Union Human Rights Commission had an official meeting with a member of the Abiy regime who downplayed verified reports of weaponized SGBV committed in Tigray. Additionally, the World Bank announced a 300 million USD funding package for Ethiopia. While international actors must use all the tools at their disposal to pressure the Ethiopian government to lift its siege and restore basic services in Tigray, they must also identify and hold accountable those individuals who have fuelled and downplayed the genocidal war. The international community must make clear that those who have espoused genocidal calls, called for violence against millions of people, and worked to cover up egregious human rights violations must be held accountable for their crimes.

It has been over a month since the Ethiopian government declared what it claimed to be a “humanitarian truce,” promising to facilitate humanitarian access to Tigray. However, since this declaration, less than 4 percent of the trucks required to address the man-made famine in Tigray have been allowed to enter the region. The irregular and piecemeal humanitarian convoys that have been allowed into the region are severely inadequate in addressing the humanitarian catastrophe that has been caused by the Ethiopian government’s 10 months-long siege. Despite the Ethiopian government’s proclaimed commitment to facilitate humanitarian deliveries to Tigray, aid workers, including Michael Dunford of the World Food Programme (WFP), report negotiating with regional authorities for the safe passage of aid convoys. That humanitarian organizations have to negotiate access with regional leaders rather than the federal government indicates that the federal government is either unable or unwilling to exercise control over regional authorities.

While the federal government and regional authorities continue to obstruct aid delivery, the man-made famine in Tigray grows more severe. Previously, the number of trucks of food that needed to enter Tigray was around 600 a week. In April 2022, a United Nations (UN) official reported that about 2,000 trucks of food are needed every week to meet the region’s needs. Without consistent and unhindered humanitarian deliveries, the scale of the need will continue to increase. Additionally, farmers’ lack of access to essential agricultural supplies like seeds and fertilizers means that many will miss the planting season, leading to poor harvest and a food crisis that will affect the region for years to come.

The severe food shortage also affects the ability of healthcare professionals to assist patients in the region. Healthcare professionals at Ayder Referral Hospital reported in April 2022 that Ayder Hospital, one of the last functioning hospitals in Tigray, has begun discharging patients after its food supplies ran out. After completely depleting their food supplies, doctors revealed that they have had to send hundreds of patients home, including infants, children, and people waiting for cancer treatment. In addition to the severe food shortage, the Ethiopian government’s siege has also prevented medicine and medical supplies from reaching the region, leaving doctors unable to provide medical care.

As well as the brutal siege on Tigray, several areas in Tigray remain under the occupation of brutal invading Eritrean forces and Amhara regional forces, including Northern and Western Tigray. In these areas, these forces continue to commit atrocities, among them, forced displacement and weaponized starvation in Irob district in northeastern Tigray, and campaigns of ethnic cleansing in Western Tigray, which comprises of mass arrest, torture, extrajudicial killings, massacres, weaponized rape, and forced displacement. On April 6, 2022, a joint Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International report on atrocities committed in Western Tigray detailed the events that have taken place since November 2020 and labeled them as ethnic cleansing. The Amhara forces’ illegal occupation of Western Tigray is arguably the largest barrier to facilitating peace.

Furthermore, the federal government is engaged in or unable to reign in the numerous conflicts and unrest across the country that threaten to further destabilize Ethiopia and the broader East Africa region. The government is currently waging a military offensive against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, while clashes between the government and armed groups have been reported in the Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, Somali, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Regions (SNNPR). The federal government and militias operating across regional borders have killed hundreds of people, destroyed entire villages, and deeply traumatized communities across the country. This growing political instability comes as swaths of Oromia and Somali regions face a severe drought that threatens hundreds of thousands of people’s lives.

Overall, Ethiopia’s political and humanitarian conditions are extremely fragile. With Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration unwilling and unable to address and willfully fueling the multitude of complex issues that plague the country, the situation is sure to deteriorate quickly, jeopardizing regional and global security.

It has been over 17 months since the Ethiopian government began waging a genocidal war against millions of people in Tigray. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands have lost their lives, with millions more displaced from their homes. The genocidal war on Tigray has additionally entailed the use of Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV) as a weapon of war, wide spread destruction, and the weaponization of starvation. Due to the man-made famine engineered by the Ethiopian and Eritrean regimes, millions of people in Tigray are starving to death. In March 2022, the Guardian reported that themalnutrition rate for children under five has risen to 13 percent, while the rate for pregnant and lactating women is at a staggering 60 percent. Out of desperation, people in Tigray have resorted to selling off livestock, cutting household spending on essentials like healthcare, and most devastatingly, begging for food. The famine in Tigray directly results from the de facto blockade imposed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which has resulted in less than 10 percent of the needed food aid reaching Tigray in the last eight months.

On March 24, 2022, the Ethiopian government declared what it professed to bean indefinite truce. While any declarations that can ensure the delivery of lifesaving assistance to millions of people who have been blocked off from receiving aid is encouraging, it should be treated with extreme caution, given the Abiy administration’s repeated practice of signaling its readiness for peace while actively waging war. It is to be remembered that upon being driven out of most parts of Tigray by the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) in June 2021, the Abiy regime attempted to portray its military defeat as a humanitarian ceasefire. Using this fictitious humanitarian ceasefire as a cover for the international community, the regime enacted a brutal siege, cutting off essential services including electricity, banking, internet, and prevented the transportation of food, cash, and fuel into Tigray.

While the Ethiopian government has the power to facilitate unhindered humanitarian access, it has refused to do so. The regime successfully prevented aid trucks from entering Tigray from mid-December 2021 to March 2022.Moreover, diplomats and aid workers have reported that the Ethiopian government had made commitments to ease restrictions on relief convoys entering Tigray at the start of 2022, which it has evidently failed to uphold. In February 2022, a convoy of 20 trucks was granted permission to travel to Tigray, but this convoy did not reach Tigray until March 2022. UN aid agencies estimate that 100 trucks carrying food, non-food items, and fuel, are required to deliver the required aid into Tigray every day.

Time and again, the Ethiopian government has deceived the international community by making public declarations of peace while pursuing policies that have directly led to the deaths of tens of thousands in Tigray. As such, the international community must not be fooled by empty rhetoric but use the Ethiopian government’s declaration to demand action and ensure that humanitarian aid reaches the over 6 million people in Tigray who are in desperate need.

Given Russia’s invasion and brutal war in Ukraine in recent weeks, much of the world’s attention has shifted to events in Europe. The brutalities that the people of Ukraine are being subjected to, including a violent invasion, indiscriminate attacks on civilians, and a humanitarian siege, are painfully familiar to those following the war on Tigray. Like Abiy, Vladimir Putin is carrying out a devastating campaign with absolutely no regard for the international laws and norms that govern war and is pursuing a strategy that threatens the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. While the humanitarian and geopolitical significance of the war in Ukraine cannot be understated, it is vital for the international community to continue keeping its eyes on and exerting pressure to abate the similar humanitarian catastrophe still unfolding in Tigray.