Op-Ed: Tigray: A Glimpse of Hope Amid an Uncertain Future

Op-Ed: Tigray: A Glimpse of Hope Amid an Uncertain Future

On June 28, 2021, eight months after a siege by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, and other Tigrayan cities were liberated by the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). The TDF has led the popular resistance against the indiscriminate aggression of conspiring forces comprising Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces during the genocidal war on Tigray.

The last eight months have been nothing short of a nightmare for Tigrayans living under the brutal hands of invading actors who have inflicted savage war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide against them. For the first time since the genocidal war began in November 2020, Tigrayans in Tigray and abroad breathed a sigh of relief after hearing the news of liberated cities and towns in Tigray. With TDF in power, Tigrayans living in Tigray can finally take a break from medieval style dehumanizing atrocities imposed on them by the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments.

“The TDF has led the popular resistance against the indiscriminate aggression of conspiring forces comprising Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces during the genocidal war on Tigray.” #TigrayGenocide #AllowAccessToTigray

With a sense of protection with TDF in power, there are now questions about what could unfold in the coming weeks and months, as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed continues to block Tigray from the rest of the world and reports of military build up around Tigray commence once again. There are currently over 5 million Tigrayans at risk of starvation, in what has been referred to as a man-made famine. Since the start of the genocidal war, the international community has been pleading for unfettered access into and throughout Tigray so that aid agencies can respond to the humanitarian crisis in a timely manner.

The shift in military dynamics has brought about a shift in military and political tactics by the Abiy Administration, as well as renewed challenges for alleviating the humanitarian crisis. According to the Ethiopian government, the withdrawal from Tigray was to allow farmers to cultivate their farms and alleviate the humanitarian crisis, but the exact opposite has occurred: Abiy is isolating and suffocating the region. He has once again turned to blackouts: there is currently no electricity, access to clean water, access to telecommunication lines, or access to bank services in the majority of Tigray.

“Abiy is isolating and suffocating the region. He has once again turned to blackouts: there is currently no electricity, access to clean water, access to telecommunication lines, or access to bank services in the majority of Tigray.” #AllowAccessToTigray

This change in strategy was clear from the moment the ENDF was forced to retreat. While exiting, to leave no stone unturned in paralyzing the government of Tigray and starving the people of Tigray, the fleeing forces looted banks, office equipment, and other materials they deemed essential for survival of Tigrayans. Even the United Nations and other aid agencies weren’t spared from the looting and last minute destruction.

To exacerbate the man-made famine, Amhara forces with the support of the ENDF have destroyed the Tekeze river bridge, a lifeline for many Tigrayans. Given that the main World Food Programme (WFP) warehouse is located in Gondar, a city in the Amhara region, the Tekeze river bridge served as the only route to reach Tigray in recent months. 

All of these coordinated actions indicate that Abiy has no intention of seeking a peaceful solution to the genocidal war he masterminded with Eritrea’s dictator Isaias Afewerki. In fact, Abiy’s forces did not retreat from Mekelle and other Tigrayan towns and cities for the sake of peace, they were forced to escape because they were defeated. Abiy is now trying to buy time to reorganize himself and continue his offensive against the people of Tigray. Meanwhile, he is using all methods to weaken the Tigrayan population, including a man-made famine.

The Amhara regional leaders and Eritrean high officials are also delivering conflicting statements with regards to recent developments in fear of reprisals from the TDF. These governments realize the brutal war crimes they have committed against innocent civilians and their livelihoods, and thus expect the TDF to respond. Hence, the destruction of the bridge at Tekeze river could have had two purposes: cutting supply lines to Tigray and also hindering Tigrayan forces from entering Western Tigray and continuing further to the Amhara region. 

The strategic approaches of the warring parties aside, the lives of millions of civilians are at stake, requiring immediate and decisive measures allowing the humanitarian agencies to act swiftly in addressing needs. Therefore, it’s more than necessary for the international community to work with the rightfully elected Tigrayan government to quickly address the situation unfolding in Tigray. One must not be fooled by Abiy’s and the Ethiopian government’s manipulation, propaganda, and lies, which have been plentiful from the start of the genocidal war on Tigray. 

The international community must quickly resolve the crisis at hand, working through various scenarios to respond in a timely and humane manner to a man-made crisis. If the international community is truly taking the humanitarian crisis in Tigray seriously, then finding a way to reach the people in need would not be a problem. As the saying goes, “Where there is a will, there is always a way.” 

Ethiopia’s role in the Horn of Africa has been jeopardized by the war on Tigray. Had it not been for Abiy’s lack of diplomatic skills combined with his delusional megalomania, Ethiopia could have continued to play a stabilizing factor in the region. Ethiopia has shown before that it was possible to maintain relative interregional stability; however, now with the pariah state of Eritrea being the main regional actor and having inserted itself into the genocidal war on Tigray and wider Ethiopian affairs, Ethiopia itself is on the brink of collapse

Without addressing the man-made crisis and understanding the real causes and effects of the war, finding an effective solution to ending this conflict might be far from realization. It is going to be impossible to have any form of dialogue when there is a population being exterminated through man-made crises. If not resolved, the crisis in Tigray is likely to lead to more conflicts and chaos in the region. 

Once the humanitarian crisis is addressed, the next step towards stability and peace in the region needs to be an independent international investigation. An international investigation team needs to conduct fact finding inquiries in the places where atrocities and war crimes have been committed in Tigray. Based on the evidence collected, all parties should be held accountable for the crimes perpetrated. Without serving justice to the victims of war crimes and facilitating reparation for the commodities looted or destroyed, reconciliation and finding lasting peace will not be achieved. Further, a UN mediated national dialogue should be initiated in which the country’s future is negotiated amongst all stakeholders and a binding resolution is crafted. If such a process does not occur, the cycle of violence will never stop, causing avoidable human suffering to millions in the Horn. 

As for the fate of Tigray, it will be up to the people of Tigray to determine what is right for them within the context of national dialogue and constitutional framework.

Aman – Omna Tigray Contributor, July 2021

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